BETTING PROFILES - PREVIOUS HIGHLIGHTS

Over The Odds:  Pinjarra R4  #7  DANTES DIAMOND   ** Won comfortably paying $2.50

Profiles as the ideal type of horse I like to back. He's a clear leader with good form and coming off a strong last start run where he ran overall time that is signficantly better than those he meets today. Add to that a good jockey in S O'Donnell and he has the perfect profile.

That doesn't mean a 100% win strike rate, but it does mean that horses like this win much more often than their price price suggests, resulting in excellent long-term profits (15%-20%). I expect Dantes Diamond to be short, but he is the right horse to take those odds about.

Over The Odds:  Doomben R4  #2 ADEBISI  ** Started $2.30 and won easily... $3.80 easily available for Smartform followers!

Profiles well here coming off a good last start run when he showed great early speed and looked to have it won with 100m to go, but got run down in the last few strides of the 1200m trip. From a better draw he should lead again and that combined with the drop to 1110m presents a very appealing betting profile. At $3.80 in current markets he appeals as well over the odds. I expect him to start shorter.

Over the odds: Eagle Farm R8  #1 PUCCINI   ** Won paying $3.80

Profiles as the ideal type of favourite to back here. He won comfortably at the Gold Coast last start in a time that gives him top rating speed figures for this race. Adding merit to the win was that he achieved that overall time with a better than average last 600m. From the inside draw he can lead this field or at least be right up there which adds significant betting value and completes a very attractive betting profile.

Over the odds:  Eagle Farm R8  #16  TOPKAPI PALACE   ** Won - $11 early into $10, into $8.50... then best price on track $6.50 into $5.00. The tote was $12+ into $4.40.

Currently $11 in fixed markets and profiles as excellent longshot value. The blinkers were applied for the first time last start and that saw a big turnaround in both run style and form. He led over 1350m at Ipswich and won easily in particularly fast time, a clear standout on the day. Those figures rate on top in this race even though up in class.

Add to that the 3.5kg weight drop and the likelihood that he will lead again and you have an outstanding betting profile. The market seems to be significantly underestimating the effect of the blinkers last start and overall time that he ran. He's well over the odds.

Over the odds: Sandown R5  #1  ALL CHEVAL ** Won paying $4.40

Two runs in this class this preparation have been solid and most notably he has significant scope to improve towards his best figures, which are clearly better than the opposition here.

1400m on the Lakeside circuit looks ideal and it was this track that he produced his career best figures last preparation. In a race that lacks clear leaders he can race right up on the pace and that only enhances the value in his profile. $4.00 currently on offer from Centrebet looks top value. Regularly backing these types of horses will put you well in front in the long-term.

Over the odds: Balaklava R2 #4 CAIRNGORM ** Won at $7.00 backed into $5.00

Likely to be decent odds here, but profiles as a clear value runner. This 3YO colt has obviously had problems with just 4 career starts interrupted by two spells, but his first up run last start was good in a very fast rating maiden at this track on 20th May. The speed figures clearly stood out on the day.

Given he started at 30/1 in that last run, the market is likely to discount the merit of his performance, but he comes into this with clear top rating figures. Being so lightly raced there is every chance that run was no fluke and that he can go on with it from here.

He has the speed to be up near the lead and jockey B Claridge is amongst the better performed riders in South Australia. Cairngorm is certainly no good thing in a race filled with uncertainty, but he has a clear value profile and is likely to be decent odds.

Over the odds: Caulfield R5  #2 DRIFFIELD GOLD   ** Won paying $2.10

Profiles as the ideal type of favourite to back here. He's flying this preparation with top form and most importantly strong speed figures including sectionals. He lines up here on a 7 day back up after a last start win, with a good jockey riding and can comfortably go forward to settle right up on the speed. $2.70 in current fixed odds markets appeals as excellent value.

Over the odds: Sandown R6 #14  TICTACS ** Won paying $3.00

First up today but profiles strongly as favourite that will go around at value odds. He has won his last two first up runs in good style and has overall form and figures that rate him comfortably on top of his opposition. Most importantly he handles the sting out of the ground and is drawn with the early speed to take up the lead and control the race. He's currently $3.20 with Tab Sportsbet and his profile clearly suggests that there is plenty of value for punters. I'd expect him to start shorter.

Over the odds: Caulfield R8  #5 ROYAL CHARADES ** Won paying $3.70

Profiles strongly here as a good bet at nice odds (currently $5.00 in fixed markets). This 4 year old mare has been racing in top form and comes into this with particularly strong overall and sectional figures from her last start win. Over the same track and distance today she's drawn to race just behind the lead and combined with her figures, that's a very appealing combination.

Compare her profile at a market price of $5.00 to the runner mentioned below and they are chalk and cheese. Regularly backing horses like Royal Charades at these types of prices will put you will in front over the long-term.

Over the odds:  Caulfield R2 #3 FIRST COMMAND   ** Won paying $2.10

Profiles as an ideal favourite to back here. He's a promising sprinter on the way up coming off top recent form, including two strong wins with excellent speed figures. A top jockey, top trainer, scope for improvement and the abiltiy to race up on the lead all help to create good betting value at the short price. Whatever price the market offers for him will have a worthy edge for punters. Regularly backing these types of favourites returns a good profit year in and year out.

Over the odds:  Canterbury R6  #4 ELAHI  ** Won paying $4.00

Presents as a good betting proposition here in a race where the market is likely to find a couple of runners to fancy, esepcially the Peter Snowden trained Tinamou. However Elahi is the runner with the positive betting factors in his favour. He has been progressing nicely this preparation and comes off a good last start with in a race with particularly good speed figures. Being from the Waterhouse yard I expect him to appreciate stepping up in ground to 1900m and top jockey Blake Shinn rides. Most importantly this race seems to lack pace and although drawn wide I expect Elahi can get across comfortably and control things to suit. That's factor alone provides a worthy betting edge.

With some other well credentialled chances in the race Elahi is no good thing, but his profile clearly says that whatever price the market offers about him will be good value.

Over the odds:  Caulfield R3 #10 La Rocket  ** Won paying $5.50

Presents nicely here on the quick back up after having no luck last Saturday, not helped by an average ride. Speed figures and form angles are in his favour here and with a clean jump he has the speed to race right up on the lead, a critical betting factor. Expect him to be around $5.00 in betting, which holds a good edge for the punter.

Over the odds:  Ascot R6 #8 TAHARKA  ** Won paying $2.40

A lightly raced 5YO gelding, he showed last start why connections and the trainer have persisted with him, scoring an easy all the way win at Bunburry in fast time. He was added to our list of Horses To Follow after that win and it's no surprise that he presents with a strong betting profile here. Vritually all of the key factors are there to suggest he will be value in this race. With a few other chances coming into this with Ascot form, it's hard to know what price the market will assess him, but whatever they bet will have a value edge for punters.

Over the odds:  Ascot R9 #6 Dantes Volonte  ** Won paying $4.40

Has a strong betting profile here coming off a fast all the way win at this track last start. If rain comes and the track gets downgraded to Slow or worse then that would add some unwelcomed uncertainty, but that aside this 5YO gelding ticks all the key boxes to suggest the market will undervalue him here. In such a competitive race I couldn't declare him a "good thing" but whatever price the market offers will be better than his true winning chance

Over the odds:  Doomben R6 #1 FANGLES   ** Won paying $4.00

Profiles ideally here, ticking all the key boxes. Ignore last start where he was caught wide and his form is outstanding, including two recent runs at this track that are good enough to win this. Top jockey Glen Colless rides and I expect that with his early speed he'll be able to easily settle up near the lead.

Regularly backing these types of horses brings excellent long-term profits, so whatever price the market offers today will be good value for punters.

Over the odds:  Moonee Valley R8 #2 MALDIVIAN   (Cox Plate) ** Won paying $12.00

Currently $12 in the Cox Plate but ticks a number of key boxes here to suggest that the price is good value. His runs this preparation are littered with speed figures good enough to win this, he will race right up on the lead and has a top jockey riding. Adding further to his credentials is the quick back up from the Caulfield Cup, the addition of blinkers for the first time and his liking for this track.

I'm not concerned about the drop back in distance... previous winners like Northerly, Saintly and Super Impose have all done it successfully. Maldivian might not be as good as them, but this is Cox Plate is not as strong as usual. Further more, the top two favourites in the race, Princess Coup and Samantha Miss both profile poorly, increasing the prospect that other runners in the race like Maldivian are actually value.

All of that doesn't make him a good thing here, but it does clearly suggest that the $12 is very good value for punters. I'm happy to have something on him.

Over the odds:  Caulfield R4 #2 AL'S BEST MATE - ** Won paying $11.00

A tough race with some talented types, but this Peter Moody trained gelding is likely to be around $9-$10 in the market and has some appealing aspects in his profile to suggest that price will be value. Most notably he has good recent speed figures and has the early pace to get forward and race up on the lead. Horses at this price only need to maintain a strike rate of 12%-15% to be immensely profitable and I've assessed his winning chance to be closer to 25%. Even at that assessment he's certainly no good thing in this competitive race, but he does look a very appealing value bet.