The 2011 Melbourne Cup

Unlike other Group 1 races in some years, the Melbourne Cup is almost certain to be a true test of sustained speed. There will be no getting away with a soft win and substandard figures due to a lack of depth in the opposition. This year’s winner will need to earn it with a supreme performance and figures that reflect true Group 1 quality.

My approach to a Melbourne Cup is to focus on a number of key principles and use them to quickly sort the field into brackets that reflect their winning profile.  I’m not interested in trying to overlook the weight of evidence on a horse and look for the remote possibilities that it could win. History gives us some clear guidelines to make the analysis relatively uncomplicated.

Key Principals of Finding The Melbourne Cup Winner

History presents some overwhelming evidence that Melbourne Cup winners come into the race with the following credentials:

 1. A Recent Australian Start: Since Vintage Crop in 1993 there have been 56 overseas entrants start in the Melbourne Cup without a prior Australian run for zero winners. They have included some of the most highly touted stayers in the world. One day an overseas runner will break this trend but given the weight of evidence and difficulty in forming an accurate assessment of these horses, it’s easy to simply dismiss them as winning chances.

2. Winning Form: The large majority of Melbourne Cup winners are coming off a win at their last start or “eye catching” close up performance. Only Efficient and Viewed have bucked this trend in recent history and they were both in editions of the race that had a notable lack of runners with winning form. That’s not the case this year so I expect this principle to prove critical again.

3. Proven ability to run fast time – top quality figures.

Much like winning form, the large majority of Melbourne Cup winners over history have proven prior to the race that they can run fast time in a sustained test of speed. As I mentioned in the introduction, there is no getting away with a soft Melbourne Cup win from substandard figures.

4. Respected in the Market

In the last 35 years there have only been two Melbourne Cup winners start longer than 16/1.That price bracket usually accounts for only the top 6 or 7 runners in the 24 horse field, so despite the lure to try and find a longshot winner, the market has proven to be a great guide and should be used to advantage.

Analysing The Chances

The table below marks each runner on the four principles above using the following scores:

ü = Clearly passes

O = Clearly fails

± = Doesn’t pass but not a clear fail

? = Unable to assess

My Market

The Top Chances

There are only four runners that meet all four principles in this year’s Melbourne Cup. Let’s a take a look at them and try and distinguish between them

Americain

The winner of the race last year who has returned with arguably an even better performance in his lead up run this year, winning the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. He ran a top class 110 figure winning in that race with a sensational rating  last 200m rating. His last 200m was the strongest section of his last 600m which is very rare, especially when the horse is also running top class overall time. That’s the type of performance that is reserved for elite class horses and Americain is sure to take improvement from that run. He deserves to be a clear cut favourite in the race and now looks to be getting out to a good price at $5+

Dunaden

Like Americain last year, this French stayer had his first run in the Geelong Cup and was a very strong winner, arguably in more impressive style. He clocked a fast 109 rating with excellent sectionals suggesting that he is well and truly top class. In particular his acceleration and individual split from about the 800m – 400m was outstanding. He will take tremendous benefit from that run (the imports always do) and be much fitter for this race. Combine that top class performance with his proven 3000m+ ability and he’s in this with a top chance.

 Niwot

He burst into contention for the Melbourne Cup with a dominant win in the Lexus over 2500m on Saturday. Sitting off a favourable hot pace, Niwot clocked a fast 114 rating proving that he has sustained staying power. History shows that in the context of a hot early pace,  top Group 1 winners of the past over this distance range have rated 120+ so it certainly wasn’t what I’d call a serious Group 1 performance by Niwot, but that shouldn’t necessarily detract from his winning credentials as he has a few other things in his favour. Firstly, recent winners of the Lexus that have clocked fast figures have gone on to run very well in the Melbourne Cup including Brew (won), Maluckyday (2nd) and Maybe Better (3rd). Then of course Shocking won the Lexus in a race where a lack of pace prevented fast time and he went on to win the Melbourne Cup.

Also, Niwot has proven he can run fast time over 3200m. Back in May he contested a fast run Andrew Ramsden Stakes and was a superior stayer, winning impressively in fast time. No matter what angle you examine Niwot from, he has undeniable claims. I personally think that Americain and Dunaden have shown with their figures to have a touch more quality, but Niwot gets weight off them to help with that and looks to get an ideal run on the map.

 Mourayan

Chased a strong pace set up by Glass Harmonium in the McKinnon on Saturday and finished off strongly for 2nd in an eye catching Melbourne Cup lead up. That was a very fast 2000m race giving him a personal rating of 112 with slow closing sectionals. He doesn’t profile with the same quality as the top 3 above and suddenly has bar plates going on today after pulling up a little lame. That must be a big concern coming into a top class 3200m test so while he technically meets the necessary criteria to win, there must be a question mark over him.

The Other Chances

Like every year there are a number of borderline runners that have reasonable credentials but fall short of what should be the clear top bracket.

At First Sight has put in two eye catching runs behind December Draw over 2000m and then Tanby in the Bendigo Cup over 2400m. He tick most of the boxes, but his figures are just a level below what is normally needed to win the Melbourne Cup and that keeps him out of the top group. However he looks set to peak today so I expect him to run well.

Glass Harmonium put in a true Group 1 WFA performance to win the McKinnon Stakes, leading all the way at a solid tempo and finishing in a very fast 114 rating. Dropping to 54kg’s here his market price seems at odds with his proven class and lead up form, especially back to handicap conditions in this race. The reason for that is his racing style. Glass Harmonium likes to run along at a high cruising speed and while he has shown he can run top class figures with that style over 2000m, there must be strong doubts about him at 3200m. He was racing in similar top form during the Brisbane Winter Carnival and was run down over 2400m by Tullamore in the Brisbane Cup.

 Illo is now trained by the Cups King Bart Cummings and did run 3rd to Americain in a strong rating Moonee Valley Cup. Overall that was a solid run in decent figures but a level below what is needed to win this race and his market price reflects that, sitting just outside the cut off of 16/1. He can certainly be fitter here but so will many of the other chances. He’s sits firmly amongst the 2nd tier chances but is well below the top hopes.

 Tullamore is flying this preparation with strong consistent form & figures, but they appear to be just a level below the standard to win a Melbourne Cup. Nash Rawiller took every advantage in the Moonee Valley Cup by pocketing Americain at a vital time and stealing a break, but the French stayer was still able to easily run him down over the last 200m. It wouldn’t surprise me if he ran 3rd to 6th but he looks a level below what is needed to win.

 Unusual Suspect didn’t have much luck in the Caulfield Cup but still ran quite well. The sub standard rating  of the Caulfield Cup takes a bit of gloss off as does his $41 market quote, but he’s certainly not the roughest chance in the race.

 Lucas Cranach had a foot problem in the lead up to the Caulfield Cup but showed some nice acceleration and looked like he might be in the finish until he died on his run over the final 200m. He looks to have the quality to win a Melbourne Cup but to me falls into the “trap basket” of runners each year that look like they could win but ultimately don’t have the strong lead up credentials and end up falling short. One day something will buck that trend but they can do it without my support. He looks well under the odds at $13.

Summary

 Each year it’s easy to get lost in the maze of factors that could lead to a Melbourne Cup winner. However the Cup is just like any other race, basic principles of top recent form, fast figures and market respect are the keys to winning.

This year there are three horses that clearly meet that criteria. Americain, Dunaden and Niwot. Mourayan has solid credentials but the fact he has the bar plates on today after pulling up lame must be a big conern.

There’s a sizable bunch of horses with second tier credentials that will attract plenty of punters interest but history shows they typically fall short of winning the race. They are certainly in the race with a place chance but in terms of the winner I don’t think there is any need to look past those above. From a betting perspective the value appears to lie with Americain and Dunaden.

Niwot was value when shorted to $17 after Saturday, but heavy support since then has now seen him reach a value neutral price.

4:00 Geelong Race 7  -  2400m  Gp3 HCP  Geelong Cup

Pace: Looks predictable with I’m Jake and Perfect Pecs the most likely to press for the running. Nothing drawn wide here has shown intentions to be up near the lead so there shouldn’t be a whole lot of pressure early. Expect them to settle down into a nice even tempo for the majority of the race. That should give all runners a chance, although those in the back third of the field will face a difficult task.

The Main Contenders

#1 Dunaden (best price $5.75)

This French 6YO clearly looks to have the class to win this… however he does lack early speed, is likely to be well back in the field and with the Australian style of racing it won’t be an easy task for him to make up the ground over 2400m. I wouldn’t be surprised if he won but he looks rock bottom odds to me and one worth risking.

#2 Bauer (best price $6.00)

Came to Australia in winning form and then had virtually no hope getting back in a slowly run Herbert Power behind Shewan. It was a good run though and he clocked a better Last 800,600,400 and 200 than Tanby who is the favourite in this race. We know he has the ability to win this and I expect he will improve significantly from that first Australian start. With the ability to position up around midfield he’s a serious chance in this.

#4 Tanby (best price $3.75)

Racing in top form but was ideally suited  just off the pace in a moderately run race last start.  The thing is here that he’ll probably be just as well suited in the run today and ideally positioned to stake him claim in the straight. As mentioned though, Bauer did run better sectionals that Tanby last start so I don’t think his last start effort deserves to make him such a clear favourite here. He’s a definite winning chance, but I don’t see any value whatsoever. From a value perspective I’d be betting against him winning.

#5 Above Average (best price $13.00)

Was no hope last start settling a long way back in a moderately run Bart Cumming behind Mourayan, but did clock the 2nd best closing sections in the race. Combine that with his 2nd up 2.8L 4th to December Draw and it’s clear to me that he’s going very well this preparation. In previous preparations he has some strong form and figures over this distance range that are very competitive in this race. The trick is his barrier and how they decide to ride him. Ideally I’d love to see them be aggressive and go forward on him to look for a position. If he can secure a good run midfield or better then I think he can be very competitie in this. He’s a value runner at double figure odds.

#6 Im Jake (best price $9.00)

Won the 2400m Ansett Stakes at Mornington, leading all the way at a good tempo and clocking fast figures. It was a Heavy track that day and today is a Dead surface, but the key thing I take from that win is that he’s at his peak now. History shows he is equally as good on Dead ground and last preparation he raced handy to the pace to win over 2600m at Flemington on Dead in very fast time. With that in mind and his last start win I have no doubt that he’s a strong stayer right up to this class. As one of the likely leaders in a race that doesn’t have a whole lot of pressure, he looks good each way value.

#11 Red Eye Special (best price $10)

Form reads well after being ideally suited in recent runs, sitting up handy to a moderate pace and sprinting home. We’ve yet to see him in a sutained staying test to see what sort of overall figures he can run so if the pace is genuine today it will be interesting to see how he goes. The big thing in his favour though is that he’ll be up handy to the pace getting an ideal run. I don’t want to back him, but at the same time I’m not potting him. $10-$12 is probably his right price.

Summary

This is a very competitive race but given market prices I think I’m Jake,  Bauer and Above Average  are the key values runners in this. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tanby or even Danaden win, but they offer no betting value at all.

Atlantic Jewel well and truly lived up to the hype in Wednesday’s Thousand Guineas, coming from back in the field to score an ultra-impressive 3L win over Mosheen with 5.3L to the 3rd horse Sharnee Rose.

So where does that performance place her amongst this seasons crop of outstanding 3 year old?

The key indicator for all of my performance ratings is the clock… it doesn’t lie. The differentiating factor between top class horses and others is the ability to consistently run fast times and sectionals.

In her first two runs this preparation a lack of early pace gave Atlantic Jewel no chance to run fast overall time, but her sectionals showed the making of a top class filly. In The Thousand Guineas though she finally got a solid tempo up front and we saw just what she can do.

She came from back in the field, rounded them up easily and ran a 105 speed rating with strong sectionals, giving her a performance rating of 108.5 (normalised to WFA),

Where does she sit amongst the top 3 year olds this season?

Helmet – 112

Manawanui – 111.5

Sepoy – 109

Smart Missile – 109

Atlantic Jewel – 108.5+

Streama – 104.5

She rates at least 2 lengths better than Sydney’s dominant 3 year old Streama, but still short of Helmet and Manawanui’s phenomenal Caulfield Guineas performances. Interestingly the facts and figures now put her on virtually equal terms with Sepoy.

Scope to improve further

The incredible thing about Atlantic Jewel’s 108.5 is that she achieved it at only her 4th career start and looked to do it relatively comfortably. Pushed right out she could have gone faster in the Thousand Guineas and there’s no doubt that with more racing and development under her belt she will definitely rate higher in the future.

That makes her potentially the best 3 year old in the Country and with a lack of depth in our older horses, she could certainly become the next best horse racing in Australia outside of Black Caviar.

Where to next?

There has already been plenty of talk about where to next in this Spring Carnival for Atlantic Jewel. Trainer Mark Kavanagh said he’d like to send her for a spell… but I suspect he’s being a little cheeky and creating a bit of a media stir.

Atlantic Jewel is an elite class filly who has only had 4 starts and is absolutely flying at the most important time of year… where there are big prizes on offer and terrific opportunities to enhance her value.

The Cox Plate is likely to be discussed but I wouldn’t be surprised if connections come to the conclusion that going to 2040m at that level after just 4 career starts might be pushing the boundaries a little. So You Think did it two years ago, but he was arguably better bred for that type of test early in his career.

A race like the 1600m G1 WFA Myer Classic for Fillies & Mares on Derby Day looks absolutely ideal. Back in 2004 Alinghi went to that race with a similar profile and was unluckily beaten in a photo starting as $1.65 favourite. Atlantic Jewel is just as good if not better than Alinghi at the same time in her 3YO season and would no doubt also start long odds on to win the race.

My 3YO performance ratings published last week (see prior article) generated plenty of feedback, questions and requests for comparisons with older horses. Listed below are the group that I consider the best rated horses currently competing in the 2011 Spring Carnival.

My assessments are largely based on the overall speed and sectional time ability of the horse. History shows that it’s the ability to consistenty run fast overall time and sectionals that separates true top class gallopers from the others. The ratings are normalised for weight carried against the weight for age scale. In other words, these ratings are directly comparable if the horses were to line up in a theoretical match race at WFA.

In terms of difference between the ratings you can take approximately 2 points as equal to one length.

Black Caviar – 118

Sits in a class of her own in this era and arguably any era as far as Sprinters go. She consistently runs time and sectionals like we’ve never seen before.

Helmet – 112

An unbelievable Caulfield Guinease performance to set a frantic pace and win in extremely fast time. There have been a number of Open age 1600m Group 1 races run at similar hot pace and won in similar fast time, but those races are nearly always dominated by horses coming from well back off the pace…. the leaders and on pace runners just don’t survive under those conditions. That fact that Helmet did something we’ve rarely seen done at the top level in the past just emphasises how extraordinary his performance was. Remember that he is still only an early 3Yo and carried +5.5 kgs on WFA.

I have to go back to Sunline to find a pace running 3 year old with similar performances  Helmet obviously has to repeat at that level a few times to ever fit in the same bracket as Sunline, but on Caulfield Guineas day that’s the quality of performance he produced.

Manawanui 111.5

A terrific effort to chase Helmet down in the Caulfield Guineas, just failing to get there in the end. The closeness of the margin between the two probably masks the true quality in their performances. Make no mistake, Manawanui is absolute top class and has a big fiture of Group 1 racing ahead of him.

Sepoy – 109

He was the dominant 2YO and has returned just as good at 3 years old. He was outstanding in the G1 Manikato Stakes over 1200m at Moonee Valley, burning the candle at both ends to win in genuine Group 1 time. He did carry 52kgs at WFA in that race so there’s no extra credit on those time / sectional ratings for weight carried.

It may seem controversial to some that I have him rated below Helmet and Manawanui, but they clocked clearly superior figures in the Caulfield Guineas carrying more weight.

Even prior to that Helmet clocked similar speed / sectional ratings in the Guinease Prelude against Sepoy’s Manikato win and Helmet carried 58.5kg’s.  There is no doubt that based on exposed facts and figures, Sepoy must rate below the other two at this stage. Ultimately time will tell.

Smart Missile – 109

He failed in the Caulfield Guineas but that does not detract from his prior efforts in Sydney where he ran elite 3YO time and sectionals competing with the likes of Helmet and Manawanui. The Guineas showed that he might be best up to 1400m and I have no doubt that restricted to shorter distances he’ll be a top class performer in the future.

Jimmy Choux – 107.5

He hasn’t yet raced in Australia this Spring but rating his NZ form and also taking a line through King Mufhasa (Toorak winner) he deserves to be the highest rated middle distance horse so far this Spring.

Secret Admirer – 106

Won the Epsom Handicap is terrific style. She was suited by a fast pace but showed she could run the corresponding fast time you expect from a Group 1 class horse.

December Draw – 105

Burst onto the scene this Spring with consecutive victories and strong figures over 2000m. He still has to lift another level to reach what I consider genuine Group 1 class and the Caulfield Cup this Saturday will be his chance to do that. However in a season that lacks top quality older horses he has been one of the standouts.

Descarado – 105+

His Caulfield Stakes win was very solid and given it was only his 2nd run this preparation, he will amost certainly improve further.

King Mufhasa – 105

Finally broke through in Australia with a strong Toorak Handicap win carrying 58kg top weight. Apart from establishing himself in the top group this Spring, his performance only strengthened the profile of Jimmy Choux (who comfortably beat King Mufhasa in NZ at the start prior.)

Streama – 104.5

Was dynamic winning the G1 Flight Stakes at Randwick over 1600m. Coincidentally she rated very similar to Secret Admirer who won this race last year and returned 12 months later to win the Group 1 Epsom Hcp against open age horses. That top class level could be where we also see Streama this time next year.

Glass Harmonium – 104+

Set a decent pace in the Turnbull Stakes and was only run down by December Draw on the line. That was only his 3rd up run this preparation so it’s possible he can rate a little higher.

Lion Tamer 103+

Failed in the Caulfield Stakes last start but his 2nd up win in the Underwood Stakes was very solid and something I would expect him to improve off this preparation. His last start effort though leaves a question mark over him at the moment.

Atlantic Jewel 103+ now 108.5

The lack of pace in her two wins this preparation has given her no chance to run fast time, but her sectional time ability has the marks of a top class filly. She might be even better than the mark assessed here. The Thousand Guinease on Wednesday will give her the opportunity to show that.

STOP PRESS… Atlantic Jewel’s outstanding win the Thousand Guinease on Wednesday was in top class time with terrific sectionals, lifting her performance rating to 108.5 and she looked to do it comfortably. There’s still plenty of upside there after just 4 career starts.

3 year olds reign supreme

There is no doubt that this season looks particulary strong for 3 year old Colts and Geldings. That combined with a lack of overall talent and depth in the older horses (outside of Black Caviar) creates a situation where four of the top five horses racing in Australia this Spring carnival are early 3 year olds.

The Cox Plate

Of course we will see many of this group compete in the Cox Plate (2040m) in a few weeks time. 

Below I have listed the runners, their rating assessment and current market price:

Helmet – 112 – $3.50

Jimmy Choux – 107.5 – $4.00

Lion Tamer - 103+ – $10

Glass Harmonium – 104+ – $13

Secret Admirer – 106 – $15

Descarado - 105+ – $15

Of course there is more to a race than just the performance ratings of the horse. Factors such as distance ability, run style and likely pace have a significant influence on the final outcome of a race.

There’s no doubt that Helmet’s Caulfield Guineas run is the best performance so far leading into the race, however he has to carry that form to 2040m which at this stage is an unknown. Jimmy Choux is proven over the distance and could be better than my rating suggests so it’s easy to see why he’s so close to Helmet in the market.

Lion Tamer has the job ahead of him given his last start failure and only coming off a 103 rating. He looks under the odds at $10.

Descarado is almost certain to improve off his 105 assessment 2nd up, has a positive run style and will have no problem with the Cox Plate distance. There is some appeal in his price… especially at $4.50 the place. I’d rather be on him at these odds to place than Jimmy Choux at $4.00 to win.

Glass Harmonium has a similar profile to Descarado… he can improve off his 104 rating, will be up there in the run making his own luck and is proven at the distance.

Secret Admirer looks to face the toughest task. She has a competitive rating but is clearly the most disadvantaged by other factors. She is going to 1600m for the first time in her career (as is Helmet) but must also overcome the disadvantage of her get back run style. It’s likely she will be giving all of the other chances a head start at the 600m. Her hope probably rest on getting a very fast early pace and moderate last 600m, similar to the Epsom.

This time of year is always fascinating to me as we get to see a new group of top class horses emerge in the way of the early 3 year olds. Making it as a 2 year old is one thing and very rewarding for connections, but it’s not until a horse returns at 3 years old that you can start to reliably judge who the new turf stars are likely to be.

It’s a little bit like seeing a group of star footballers at 16 years of age. Predicting those that will go on to become top class players for years to come is very haphazard. Many of these youngsters are better than others because of advantages in their rate of early development. As they get older the competition gets much tougher as the others start to catch up in their development and genuine ability starts to come to the surface.

However if you were to identify a star group of footballers at 19 or 20 years of age then your ability to predict those that will go on to be top class players is much more accurate. 

By the time a horse reaches it’s 3 year old season we start to see early development advantages become less relevant and overall ability starts to shine.

So here we are now at the beginning of October… most of last season’s best 2 year olds have resumed and a new group of late bloomers are starting to make their presence felt. With that in mind, who are the best 3 year olds racing in Australia at the moment?

Listed below are my performance ratings for the top group of 3 year olds this season.

My assessments are largely based on the overall speed and sectional time ability of the horse. History shows that it’s the ability to consistenty run fast overall time and sectionals that separates true top class gallopers from the others. The ratings are normalised for weight carried against the weight for age scale. In other words, these ratings are directly comparable if the horses were to line up in a theoretical match race at weight for age.

COLTS (as at 2/10/2011)

HELMET 110.5 (1400m)

Was outstanding winning the Guineas Prelude over 1400m wth 58.5kg’s. On these figures he’s an elite class 3 year old up there with the best in any era. His clash with Smart Missile this weekend in the Caulfield Guineas is one of the most anticipated ever.

SMART MISSILE 110.5 (1400m)

Beaten in the Golden Rose, but had excuses and produced a phenomenal run to clock top class time with brilliant sectional times from back in the field. It takes a very special horse to produce figures of that quality. He can probably still improve on that and might just be the best horse racing in Australia at the moment. A big key to him is getting his barrier manners right and jumping with the field. This Saturday’s Caulfield Guineas will be a big test to see if he can do that.

SEPOY 109 (1200m)

Was the dominant 2YO and has returned just as good at 3 years old. He was outstanding in the G1 Manikato Stakes over 1200m at Moonee Valley, burning the candle at both ends to win in genuine Group 1 time. He did carry 52kgs at WFA in that race so there’s no extra credit on those time / sectional ratings for weight carried.

On this performance I have a horse like Hay List at his absolute best just shading Sepoy. That’s no knock on Sepoy as Hay List is one of the best sprinters we’ve seen in recent years… it just helps to put his performance in perspective. Black Caviar is of course on a different planet again, at least 2 to 3 lengths above their level.

It may seem controversial to some that I have him rated below Helmet and Smart Missile, but they have been clocking similar time / sectional ratings carrying 56.5 – 58.5 kgs and must therfore rate marginally superior at this stage. Ultimately time will tell.

MANAWANUI 108.5 (1400m)

He got all the favours in front when he defeated Smart Missile in the Golden Rose but still ran top class time with very fast sectionals. In any other era he’d probably be the dominant 3 year old but this year looks extraordinary for 3 year old talent.

MOMENT OF CHANGE 105.5 (1300m)

Has only won a Murtoa Maiden and midweek Sandown race but he has been ultra impressive clocking outstanding figures for a horse having just his first two career starts. He has Group 1 class written all over him but we won’t see him again this Spring. Peter Moody has opted to put him away for the Autumn rather than press on to a race like the Caulfield Guineas. Given the exceptional ability of  the more seasoned Helmet,Smart Missile and Manawanui it could very well be a decision that pays big dividends in the Autumn and beyond. 

CHASE THE RAINBOW 103 (1600m)

Judging by his Stutt Stakes win he’s a a real up and comer that gives the impression he can rate even better when he gets beyond 1600m. He’s one to keep an eye on.

FILLIES  (as at 2/10/2011)

STREAMA 104.5 (1600m)

Was dynamic winning the G1 Flight Stakes at Randwick over 1600m. Coincidentally she rated very similar to Secret Admirer who won this race last year and returned 12 months later to win the Group 1 Epsom Hcp against open age horses. That top class level could be where we also see Streama this time next year.

ATLANTIC JEWEL 103+ (1200m)

The lack of pace in her two wins this preparation has given her no chance to run fast time, but her sectional time ability has the marks of a top class filly. She might be even better than the mark assessed here.

MOSHEEN 101+ (1600m)

Her win in the Edward Manifold Stakes over 1600m was dominant and deserving of a rock solid 101 rating here. On her 2nd to Sepoy in the Golden Slipper she could become a 103-105 rating 3 year old which is absolute top class. I’m very interested to see how she matches up with Atlantic Jewel in the Thousand Guineas (1600m)

THIS SEASON IN PERSPECTIVE

There is no doubt that this season’s crop of 3 year old Colts and Geldings is collectively one of the strongest we’ve ever seen. I consider the best 3 year olds in the last 10-12 years to be (in no particular order) So You Think, Weekend Hussler, Lonhro and Redoutes Choice.

The likes of Smart Missile, Helmet, Sepoy and even Manawanui are potentially as great as those horses. To get four 3 year olds even close to that level of performance in one season is extraordinary.

Sepoy seems likely to be restricted to sprint trips and will probably head off to the Sheik’s Dubai base before too long,  so I will exclude him from further discussion.

As far as the others go, this weekend’s Caulfield Guineas is their defining moment so far. If the winner of the Guineas clocks the figures they appear capable of then they will have defeated one of the strongest fields ever and rightfully earned their place alongside these past champions.

Randwick Race 7 – 1600m 3YO+  Gp1 - Epsom Hcp  $500,000

Pace and Figures Benchmark

There isn’t a whole lot of early speed in this year’s race with More Strawberries (13) and King Lionheart (9) the only two established natural pace runners. Light Brigade (12) may look to go forward but he’s hardly going to try and burn the other two off early. Once positions are established I can see them dropping the tempo in the middle stages and sprinting home in a quality last 600m, which would make it very hard for those coming from midfield and worse.

Based on this year’s field I’m forecasting that the winner will need to produce at least a 105 rating on my figures to win… most likely with a good to solid last 600m.

The Top Chances

#12 King Lionheart (9) - My top pick in the race. Last Saturday he won the G2 Shannon Stakes over 1500m at Rosehill in a very strong 105 rating with a particularly fast last 600m. He’s backing up 7 days later into this (which I like), will be even fitter stepping up to the 1600m 3rd up and is almost certain to be up on the pace, which as mentioned above could be a considerable advantage.

Add to that the fact that he handles wet ground and is trained by Gai Waterhouse who has won this race 6 times before (not to mention multiple Doncasters) and King Lionheart’s credentials are absolutely rock solid with no apparent weakness. If he sprints a similar last 600m to what he did last Saturday then it’s going to take a massive performance for something to come from behind and run him down.

I had a big bet on him on Tuesday at $21w / $6p and there is still plenty of $18 / $5.25 available now. He’s outstanding odds in my opinion.

Last Saturday he was backed from $18 into $8 in the ring and I can see him being supported in this race. I think he’ll definitely start shorter than $18.

#6 Pinker Pinker (5) – Comes off a strong 105 rating behind Kings Rose in the Stock Stakes where she covered plenty of ground. Like the figures suggest, that has proven a hot form race and there’s no doubt in my mind that she’s right up to this. I’m not surprised she’s had good support in the last 24-48 hours. She handles the wet and is cleary a strong chance… but probably at her fair odds now.  

The Next Best Chances

#1 Sincero (1) - No doubt has quality but it’s interesting to note that he has only rated 101 in both of his wins this preparation. He’s done it off average pace with good solid sectionals but they have hardly been standout figures. He achieved his last start figures after sitting wide so there’s no doubt he deserves a little more credit. 

Going back to the Winter, his Stradbroke win as also run at a moderate early tempo which negated the opportunity to run genuinely fast time. So despite his fantastic record, we’ve yet to see Sincero clock what I consider “fast” overall time. That said though, it seems highly likely that he could achieve a 105+ performance that would be needed to win this and the one big thing in his favour is that he can sprint a very fast last 600m. With that in mind I’m certainly not potting him in this race but combine his lack of a fast recent figure with barrier 1 on a rain affected track and the top weight and I can’t see how he’s possibly anything close to value. I wouldn’t be surprised if he won, but from a value perspective I’d recommend working around him.

$4 Kings Rose (18) – Beat Pinker Pinker in the Stock Stakes at Moonee Valley last start earning a 105 rating in the process. The barrier is a big challenge but the wet should be okay and she’s only one of three in this race that have reached the 105 mark in their recent form. $10 in current markets is probably a fair price, but no great value.

#5 Thankgodyourehere (2) – Clocked a very solid 102 rating winning the Bill Ritchie last start with a particularly fast last 600m. He can easily springboard off that performance right into the competitive mix here. $13 in current markets is once again a fair price but no great edge for punters.

#3 Triple Elegance (10) – Ran a solid 99 behind Sincero last start and despite that being well short of the winning mark for this race, he did go 105-106 on two occassions last preparation, one of them over the Randwick mile. It would be a huge training feat if Chris Waller could get him to improve to reach that mark in the Epsom, but he is proven at that level so you can’t rule him out. Hugh Bowman riding in top form is a plus. $21.00 in current markets seems about right given the improvement he needs to make in order to win. He’s a definite place contender.

The Remaining Runners

A large number of the remaining runners all rate around the 101-102 mark which is 2-3 lengths off what is likely to be the minimum winning mark for this race. That doesn’t make it impossible for them to win, but given the competition rated above them, it seems highly unlikely to me.

#7 Secret Admirer (16) seems to be the standout poor value of this group at $7.50. She was thrashed 4.2L by King Lionheart last Saturday with no excuse at all. She has a huge task to turn around that last start 97 rating and achieve a new +2 length career peak to win this… especially from barrier 16 where she seems to have no option but to go back. I couldn’t back her with anyone’s money.

#2 Sacred Choice (17) has won two Group 1 mile races on Heavy tracks so if those conditions were prevailing come Saturday then you couldn’t rule her out. However she’s not going anywhere near as well as she was leading into those two peak performances so it may take more than Heavy ground to bring her into this with a serious chance.

Summary

For me King Lionheart is the absolute standout value in the race. It’s not very often you find a horse at $21 / $6 that has top rating figures, a last start win in similar class,  scope to improve further and the prospect of a notable on pace advantage. That’s not to mention a top class trainer that has dominated the race over more than a decade and has proven beyond doubt that she can have her horses at their absolute peak on the day.

When such a situation does come along though you need to back your opinion and aim to make it a payday to remember. Anything less and you risk feeling regret that you didn’t make the most of a prime opportunity. That’s exactly what I’ve done on King Lionheart with a big each way bet. It’s similar scenario to Roma Giaconda last week where I was very confident that $15 to run 2nd to Manawanui was incredible value. Hopefully there will be a similar big result come Saturday.

Good punting!

Daniel

A couple of weeks ago I decided to move into the new age and sign up to Twitter. I must say I was impressed with the number of racing representatives putting out useful information in a timely and convenient fashion. It’s well worth taking a look.

My aim with Twitter is to provide an insight into what day to day betting at a professional level can be like. The decisions I make on what to back, general observations and the high’s and low’s of fluctuating betting results. If you’ve been following so far you have already read about me cheering massive winning days and then cursing at all sorts of things as it goes sour the following day.

Below I’ve created a story on the type of posts you can see so far.

Useful angles on races / horses that others might not consider.

1. “SANR7 Roulettes fav but the Hawkes stable is horribly out of form, just 10% SR & -56% POT from 112 runners under $10 in the last 6 moths.”

2. “Roulletes did nothing… my advice is to avoid the Hawkes stable at the moment until we see a return to form.”

On the odd occassion I offer an early tip, usually after I have made an early bet and havea price locked in.

Whether you find the information useful or simply might get some entertainment out of my emotional outbursts and misfortune every now and again then it’s well worth signing up to Twitter and following. You can find me at: @smartformracing

As always, feel free to email me if you have any questions.

Good punting!

Daniel

Over the last few weeks a political storm has been brewing in racing circles over the VRC’s decision to award a $600,000 bonus to the 1200m G1 WFA Patinack Farm Classic winner should the horse have previously claimed victory in any of the current 2011 Global Sprint Challenge series events.

The idea was labelled as ”revolutionary” in some circles with the VRC officialdom declaring that it “will incentivize the connections of the world’s best sprinters to hopefully take on Black caviar and Australia’s best sprinters.”

However while VRC administrators were giving each other “high fives” over their genius plan, Black Caviar trainer Peter Moody and the owners were secretly fuming. 

Trainer Peter Moody said that he was ‘miffed’ at the idea that Black Caviar could go to Flemington on Patinack Classic day and essentially be racing for half the prize money compared to some others in the race .

“You’d think that she might be the drawcard, not a horse from anywhere getting the opportunity to race for twice as much prize money.” Moody said.

It soon became apparent that Singapore star Rocket Man was the only bonus contender headed for the Patinack Farm Classic and for a short time the VRC officialdom were salivating over the financial benefits that would flow from a big time clash between Black Caviar and Rocket Man.

However comments from trainer Peter Moody soon had the VRC feeling more anxious than a sky diver who had forgotten his parachute. It became apparent that connections and trainer Peter Moody were investigating quarantine and scheduling details for a possible trip to Japan in October. That would mean Black Caviar had little or no involvement in this year’s Spring Carnival.

The target would be the $1.2m Sprinters Stakes. 

“There is a lot of prize money on offer in a race like the Sprinters Stakes in Japan.” Moody said.

“The prize money from that one race would pretty much cover all the races in Melbourne in the spring.”

At the same time, Sydney racing adminstrators were seizing the opportunity and started to canvas thoughts from connections of Black Caviar, Hay List and More Joyous about a $1m Spring match race over a suitable distance.

The VRC’s initial response was predictably stout, ruling out any appearance fee to ensure Black Caviar stayed in Melbourne for the Patinack Farm Classic or any changes to the rules.  At the same time there were apparently some cross words exchanged between VRC and Sydney racing (ATC) bosses with the VRC not to pleased about the back door manouvering by the ATC.

Just yesterday though the VRC drastically changed their tune and the rules that relate to the $600,000 bonus. It has now been announced that the bonus will also include the six subsequent international legs of the GSC run after the $1 million Patinack Farm Classic in November through to July 31 of the following year. That means Black Caviar (or any other Australian Sprinter) will have the opportunity to qualify for the bonus by winning the Patinack Farm Classic this Spring and then winning in Hong Kong in December, Japan in March, Singapore in May or one of the three legs in the UK in June and July.

This move has virtually guaranteed that Black Caviar will be there in November to defend her 2010 victory, most likely against Rocket Man in a most anticipated clash, especially with Rocket Man’s trainer Patrick Shaw publicly stating “He’ll beat her, I’ve always thought he was clearly the better horse,”

So in the end it looks like everyone is happy.

Now we all know why the VRC changed the rules, because Peter Moody and connections of  Black Caviar kicked up a stink and threatened to boycott the Spring Carnival.  Wouldn’t it be good to read an official statement about the change for once that read something like:

“After much consideration and number crunching by our accountants, we realised that the VRC would sacrifice a fortune if Black Caviar didn’t race in the Melbourne Spring. We are too scared to take the risk that connections might race her in Japan or worse still Sydney and for that reason alone we have decided to change the rules so that she can qualify for the bonus. If it weren’t for Black Caviar we would not have considered this change, but we have to protect the most important thing to us… the VRC’s financial interest.”

Sadly though the official statement reads:

“There has been much discussion regarding the Patinack Farm Classic bonus since it was first announced by the VRC and it has provided us with an opportunity to revisit the principles on which the bonus was first determined,” VRC chief executive Dale Monteith said.

“This has enabled us, with some increased financial exposure, to provide a structure that we believe gives the best possible chance of attracting international sprinters to Flemington’s Melbourne Cup Carnival and to also encourage Australian horses to prove themselves on the world stage.”

Blah Blah, Blah Blah Blah.

What this little charade does show us is just how much political muscle Black Caviar has. Her drawing power has forced racing officials to make an embarassing change to what they though was a fool-proof plan. Mind you I think it’s a good change. As a matter of principle, if overseas horses have the opportunity to earn more prizemoney, than locals should too. It was arrogant and short sighted of the VRC to structure the qualifying rules the way they initially did.

This experience should see any future bonus scheme ideas both in Victoria and other States structured so that locals are not effectively excluded. One day connections of another local horse will benefit and they will be able to thank the legacy of Black Caviar’s political muscle, because without that these schemes would have remained for the benefit of overseas horses

Scarlett Lady’s dominant win in the QLD Oaks on Saturday had all the media commentators ‘gushing’ about how “special” she just might be and how we could see her emulate the feats of Ethereal to go on and claim the Caulfield Cup / Melbourne Cup double in the Spring. I think we need to get used to the fact that everytime a NZ Filly wins the QLD Oaks, they will immediately draw comparisons to Ethereal.

I guess the media needs to talk and write about something, but as punters we need to keep things in perspective and not get carried away with all the hype. The truth is that the facts and figures around Scarlett Lady’s Oaks win fall a little way short of the hype we’ve seen.

Each week Smartform Subscribers receive my detailed assessment and comments on Carnival races to help highlight the true merit in each race and individual performances. Below is a copy of the comments sent in relation to Scarlett Lady.

Eagle Farm Race 7 2400m 3YO F Gp1 SW

Winner: Scarlett Lady (100) – Class Merit: (0) 

Solid early pace – Very Slow last 600m

Another fast run race set this up for closers and made it a true test of 2400m ability. The winner Scarlett Lady was in a different league to this lot and looks a genuine staying filly. That gives her a good chance in the QLD Derby against the boys, however don’t buy into all the talk about her being “something special” just yet. 

They came home in a terrible 37.4 secs here, so she had every possible chance to clock a fast time and only ran a 100 rating, which is solid enough for the Brisbane Carnival, but certainly nothing outstanding.

Last year the 3YO Filly Dariana demolished the QLD Derby opposition by 4.5 lengths in a race that had a similar fast pace up front. That makes the two performances a fair comparison and Dariana rated about 1.5 lengths faster overall. She was touted in a similar way to Scarlett Lady but has done nothing since against better opposition.

We also only need to look back to the AJC Derby this Autumn to see the Melbourne 3YO Filly Shamrocker run a 106 rating off fast pace to win that race. That’s at least 3 lengths better than Scarlett Lady’s performance in this race.

So while everyone is raving about Scarlett Lady, remember that the QLD carnival is generally a few lengths weaker than Sydney or Melbourne and in this case the Oaks figures definitely support that. It was a decent winning performance but nothing special. There have been plenty of Fillies before her run superior figures in either the Oaks or Derby. It’s a big step up from 3YO Fillies class in the Brisbane winter to competing against older horses as a 4YO in the Melbourne Spring carnival.

Time will tell what Scarlett Lady goes on to achieve but at this stage I’m not buying into all the hype. Relying on my facts and figures while ignoring what the media thinks has served me very well over the years so I’m not about to change now. Whether it’s from high profile races liek the Oaks or just week to week racing, it’s important to frm your own opinion and not believe everything you hear.

Good punting!

One of the key issues for aspiring punters these days is the distinct lack of qualty education material in the market. Much of the material available today is ineffective and worst still, irresponsible.

Betting education is something I’ve always been passionate about. Without the proper knowledge about things like money management, betting psychology and selection strategies, aspiring punters have little chance of becoming successful. There is so much more to successful betting than the material you typcially see in the market.

The reason that the right kind of material isn’t available is that the so called “experts” publishing advice are not winning punters… they haven’t discovered the real life keys to winning. They live in a world of theory about what should work or what has worked for the last lot of backfitted results. When one lot of advice fails they come out with a new round of advice.

That important gap in today’s market has now changed with the new Smartform Service. Subscribers to the Smartform Betting Service also receive membership to my exclusive education and advice service called “Smartform Confidential.”

Smartform Confidential provides unique articles, analysis, statistics and advice that you won’t get anywhere else.

Some of the material published so far includes:

• Article - Betting Philosophy: The betting philosophy that underpins my own success.
• Article – Trainer Judgement: Unique statistics highlighting the trainers you should really respect when a horse comes to town.
• Article – Betting Drawdown: Perhaps the most important knowledge area for punters. How do winning and losing cycles work?
• Star Performers: Ongoing series of standout horses to follow from my weekly reviews.
• Carnival Noteook: Ongoing series highlighting the true merit in individual races and performances from carnival meetings.

Carnival Notebook Winners

As mentioned above, Carnival Notebook is a review of all races at the carnival meetings, highlighting the true merit in individual races and performances. Recently both Melbourne and Sydney meetings have been covered.

The Carnival Notebook is a vital resource for punters that like to do some of their own form study. Take for example comments made about the F&M G3 race at Flemington on 12th March won by Aloha.

“The fast early speed set this up for off pace runners and Aloha superior time rating ability shone through. It’s a great effort by any horse to run so fast over 1400m first up. Bigger things might be in store for her this preparation.”

Aloha came out next start and won the Group 1 Coolmore Classic.

From the same race…

“Flying Tessie was somewhat flattered by the hot speed so don’t overestimate her performance. She regularly gets back and won’t often strike pace this strong.”

Flying Tessie was unplaced at her next run as a$2.80 favourite.

King Diamond went around a $3.50 favourite in 18 horse Adelaide Cup field, but Carnival Notebook readers had this from his last start win:

“He’s racing in great form but I wouldn’t get carried away with him. The strong pace gave this field every possible chance to run fast time and they could only manage a 101 rating. These figures are more like an average Open Handicap than true Listed quality. King Diamond is $3.80 favourite for the Adelaide Cup on Monday, which itself isn’t much better than Open Handicap standard but I certainly wouldn’t be charging into him at that price. Despite the fact he stayed well, he still only ran fair time with every chance to run faster.”

Another key feature of my Carnival Notebook analysis is the class merit measure, which assigns a value between -3 and +3 to higlight how much better or worse a race was compared to a typcially solid race of that class.

Take for example the BM95 race won by Warpath on 26/2 at Rosehill, which was noted as a +2 (notably better than average for the class) with the comment: “She came from well off the pace and was less suited than the others. She’s going to be better over further and might just measure up in lower stakes class races.”

Warpath came out next start to win a F&M Listed race by 2.5 lengths.

Pinker Pinker won a 3YOF G2 race on 26/2 with a +2 class merit and she came out to win her next start against older mares at Group 3 level.  

On 5/3 Atomic Force won a BM95 race with a +2 class merit and comment that read: “This race had plenty of depth on paper and the figures verify that with well above average numbers for a BM95, this was more like a Listed Race.”

Atomic Force won his next start at $13.00… a Listed Race at Rosehill on 19/3.

It’s not often that +2 or +3 class merit ratings are handed out, but you should certainly take notice when they are.

Star Performers

Each week I review virtually all TAB meetings and establish my figures and comments for those races. Those winners I consider “Star Performers” are passed onto Smartform clients. They are typically lightly raced horses that win with well above average figures for the class and can go on to win again at their next couple of runs.

Like the Carnival Notebook, this service has already provided some terrific results including:

19/3 Older Than Time won a Listed race paying $10.00 after being highlighted at her prior star, which was only a midweek 1900m race at Canterburyt: “Led at a genuine pace and then kept up that tempo all the way to the line to clock a fast 101 rating. She’s a staying mare of some promise. It wouldn’t surprise me to see her progress from this win to Listed / G3 company over 2000m+ and win. “

27/2 Levitator won by 2.5L at Balaklava paying $9.00 after beig highlighted at his prior start: “Returned from a spell with an impressive 5 length maiden win, clocking a 92 rating and good last 600m. The figures were far superior to the class 1 race held on the same day… 3 lengths overall and 5 lengths over the last 600m. He’s only lightly raced and looks to have more wins in store this preparation.”

12/2 Diamond To Pegasus won at $46 on the tote and 50/1 on Betfair after being highlighted on his 17/1 Moruya maiden win: “Created a nice impression on debut leading all the way to win by 4.8 lengths in a solid 90 rating with a fast last 600m. Those figures are well above average for a Maiden and were notably better than the BM60 race later in the day. He can step up to at least Provincial class and win again next start. ”

Diamond To Pegasus was backed from $9.00 into $4.50 at his next Rosehill start and went poorly, but showed his true form and the merit in his Moruya win by coming straight back to town again and winning at the massive price.

There are also of course many other shorter priced winners that have come from the Star Performers stable.

More articles and material are being added to Smartform Confidential on a regular basis. Of course clients also have direct access to ask me any betting related questions that can help them solve a problem or clarify the best approach to take. Annual subscribers receive the added bonus of getting all of the previous material published to add to their library.

As far as I know Smartform Confidential is a unique service in today’s market with quality education and advice that you won’t get anywhere else. I wish this material around when I was still working out exactly what it takes to be successful. I would have slashed years off the time it took me to reach my goals. It really is one of the best investments you can make in your betting career.

Good punting

Daniel